Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
